Record polar temperatures ‘could trigger severe weather in Ireland’ (2024)

Record temperatures in the polar regions could impact the jet stream and lead to more unpredictable and severe weather in Ireland, a climate scientist has said.

Over the weekend some parts of Antarctica recorded temperatures more than 40C warmer than average, and over 30C warmer in parts of the Arctic. The heatwave in the poles has alarmed many climate scientists.

John Sweeney, a former climate scientist on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), said the temperatures were “quite unusual” and were probably caused by warmer air masses moving towards the polar regions.

Sweeney said the Arctic was warming up to three times quicker than other parts of the globe due to a feedback loop that happens when ice sheets melt revealing a dark, shiny surface to the water. With less of a temperature difference between the polar regions and the warmer parts of the planet, this will impact the jet stream — air currents in the upper atmosphere — making it “wobbly” and unpredictable.

“If the jet stream becomes more unpredictable, then the kinds of extremes that we’ve seen in Irish climate will probably increase over time. In addition to summer extremes, we may get more in the way of flooding because air will be coming off a warmer ocean and can carry more moisture,” he told The Times.

The jet stream is driven by the change in temperature between the equator and the poles. If the poles warmed up quicker, then there would be less of a difference in temperature, which changes the nature of the jet stream. This could result in extremes of heat or cold to places in a way that they have not been experienced before.

Sweeney added that these events were unlikely to have a direct effect in the short term, but would have a “cumulative” and “downstream” impact on the Irish climate. “What you’re talking really about is changes in the frequencies of events rather than something that’s going to happen next summer or next year.”

He also said that warmer temperatures in the poles could have impacts for the melting of ice sheets, leading to sea-level rise and changes in the marine ecosystem.

Peter Thornes, an IPCC climate scientist and director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Unit at Maynooth University, said the temperature recorded in the Antarctic was “mindbogglingly large,” as this was the time of year that it should begin to get cooler.

He said there was not consensus on the direct impact of the extreme heat in the poles on Ireland, as there was “limited direct evidence” and it can be contradictory. He said one impact could be a “breakdown” in the marine food chain due to a changing marine environment. He added that with melting sea ice in the Arctic, a year-round sea passage could have a geopolitical impact.

“Fundamentally we’re changing the characteristics of the Arctic at an alarming rate. And that will have repercussions,” he said. “We live in a global world at a fundamental level. The last three years between pandemics and wars have shown us that climate change at a rapid pace in a huge area of the globe on our doorstep must have myriad impacts. Potential impacts of physical, biological and humanitarian as well as geopolitical.”

Related articles